Information Collapse

Naturally, I check the stats on this blog and am always curious to see referring sites and related comments. But this week, I’m reminded what an information clusterfuck the Internet can be with the discovery that a post I wrote about malicious editing on Wikipedia is now a cited footnote on a page at its backwoods, idiot cousin known as Conservapedia.  The page itself was about liberal bias on Wikipedia, and I couldn’t imagine anything I’d written that would support this kind of criticism; but there it was — footnote number 18 right below the heading blaming Wikipedia for, of all things, Anti-Christianity.  And the fact that they’re citing the words of a confirmed atheist is the lesser irony in this case.

Apparently, the rogue Wiki editor, Robert Clark Young, outed by Andrew Leonard at Salon.com and referenced in my post, included among his furtive revisions the “cleaning up” of articles which contained any positive reflections of paganism.  As such, Conservapedia’s beef is not that Young was a mischievous butcher of articles in general, but that Wikipedia ultimately banned him at least in part for doing his christian duty by scouring pro-pagan language. Neither my article nor Leonard’s makes mention of this particular angle related to Young’s antics; and if the pagan story is true, it’s the first I’ve heard of it.  Granted, the Conservapedia article doesn’t reference anything pertaining to the thesis of my post, only that it substantiates Young’s having been banned; although this is a paradoxical citation in support of an otherwise mundane fact.

Entitled Montag’s Grin, my piece (should any wayward christian zealot wander over here) contemplates the potential we have to digitally “burn” the books through round-the-clock, unchecked, amateur revisionism rather than with fire. So, the real irony in this case is that Conservapedia is probably one of the best examples of exactly what I meant when I wrote the post — that the tools and collectivist ideals behind the founding of Wikipedia do not necessarily have to produce better information and a smarter world. It was inevitable that an ultra-conservative, funhouse mirror version of Wikipedia would come to be, just as FOX News was inevitable the moment Ted Turner set out to prove that 24hr news could be a business.  And the Internet has only exploded and accelerated the folly 24hr news set in motion such that news is now even further segmented according to bias, has to provoke or entertain just to attract fleeting attention, and demands a rate of production that can only degrade the practice of investigative journalism.

On a related subject, I was interested to see that Popular Science recently removed comment threads from its website after concluding a study that indicated comments are actually bad for the advancement of science. This makes sense. Because we have elevated and monetized even the most base forms of discourse, we have consequently fostered an environment in which, under the guise of fairness, we continue debating on a national scale even settled sciences like Darwinian evolution. Quote that Conservapedia!

But with regard to any form of criticism of Web 2.0, those of us doing the criticizing are often accused of being anti-technology or anti-future, of trying to stuff the innovation genie back in his proverbial bottle. This isn’t a rhetorical tactic employed solely by common trolls, but also by the corporate leaders of the technological empire.  In any given debate about the application of digital technologies, the vested interests tend to sow a kind of fear by setting up the false choice of tech vs. no tech. If we’re paying attention, this is functionally the same as, If we don’t play by their rules, they’ll take their ball and go home. And we keep falling for it.  To quote Andy Borowitz in response to yesterday’s government shutdown, “If the Internet had been shut down, there would be rioting in the streets.”

Instead of this artificially binary, repetitive, and generalized defense of technology, we might all agree that the tools of innovation are also tools of exploitation; that connecting can include stalking and bullying; that the companion of crowd-sourced is mob-ruled; then maybe we can have an adult dialogue about how, when, and why we use these tools — and quite possibly assert the right to have some say as to how they evolve. Because, if the web is living up to its 20-year-old promise to make us a better informed hive, I have to wonder what this liberal’s words are doing linked to anything on Conservapedia.

Tech utopians herald the technological singularity as a messianic event — a time when man and machine will coexist in a world just beyond our imagination, where super-intelligence is the norm and immortality will be achieved.  It is possible, however, that these very same tools could actually cause the volume of  bullshit out there to keep expanding, acquire tremendous mass, and then collapse into a singularity as it is often defined in space-time — a point of infinite density from which not even light can escape.

Talking Piracy with Dr. David Price (Podcast)

David Price Part I
David Price Part II

Last week, London-based NetNames released a report entitled Sizing the piracy universe, which reveals substantial evidence that piracy of entertainment media increased substantially over a 15-month period of study.  The author of that report is Dr. David Price, Director of Piracy and Counterfeit Analysis at NetNames. Dr. Price was kind enough to take about an hour of his time for a conversation via Skype.  We discussed the report itself, of course, but also other issues related to piracy and digital distribution opportunities and threats as well as a broader discussion as to why people might want to pay attention to this issue.  This is Part I of our discussion. Listen to Part II here.

Dr. David Price Bio

Dr David Price is  a leading expert in digital piracy and online counterfeiting and currently Director of Piracy and Counterfeit Analysis at NetNames. David has well over a decade of specialist experience working with companies seeking to understand the advantages and dangers of internet technologies. He designs research solutions and provides client-focused analysis that addresses the specific needs of content and technology companies.

David is a leading authority on the propagation and spread of digital piracy over time and across ecosystems, carefully analysing the underlying strategic reasons for specific instances of piracy and demonstrating how they came to be and – just as importantly for content owners – where they are heading in the future. David’s work (such as the groundbreaking reports ‘Estimate of Infringing Use of the Internet’ and ‘Sizing the piracy universe’) has been discussed in hundreds of publications, cited in Senate hearings, and his technical expertise is often used in legal cases. He is a frequent contributor to relevant topics in the media.

The Lie is Falling – Dr. Price sizes the piracy universe

In Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, Butch (Paul Newman) sits astride his horse outside the same boxcar of the same train he’s successfully robbed over and over.  Frustrated by the railroad owner’s ceaseless but futile attempts to thwart the hold-ups, Butch proclaims, “If he’d just pay me what he’s spending to make me stop robbing him, I’d stop robbing him!”  Of course it isn’t true, is it?  Neither the character nor probably the real Butch Cassidy would likely have given up the life he knew for something as boring as just money.

If you wanted to watch this classic film directed by George Roy Hill right now, you could do so on Netflix or Amazon Prime or rent it from iTunes for four bucks. None of these innovations existed just a few years ago, and those who have repeatedly insisted that they “only use pirate sites because affordable, flexible, online alternatives don’t exist” are starting to sound a little dumb.  This is especially true as of yesterday, with the release of a new report by Dr. David Price of London-based NetNames, entitled Sizing the piracy universe.

As promised, the goal of Dr. Price’s study was to assess the scope and scale of online piracy, and only as pertains to non-pornographic entertainment. The 100-page report reveals some interesting data about bandwidth use, the business models of different types of pirate sites, and above all data on actual users of pirate sites.  Probably the most compelling conclusion that we can draw from the report is that it refutes this persistent and widely-held misconception that piracy is a symptomatic reaction against the failure of legacy media producers to offer more flexible, affordable ways to consume on demand. Even today’s Intellectual Property Watch website continues to bang this same, flaccid drumhead:

Ericsson has long argued that illegal access to content is mostly a symptom of a problem, not the root cause of it. The root cause being the inadequate availability of lawful, timely, affordable, competitively-priced and wide-ranging choice of digital content. This is fundamentally a market-supply failure.

This is just one of a zillion variations on the theme that a legacy industry is getting beat by a better business model and is just too stupid to learn and adapt to changing times.  Yet, despite the relatively rapid and still-growing number of legal, affordable alternatives for streaming and downloading media (especially video), piracy has in fact increased by substantial margins concurrent with the growth of legal alternatives.  The study reviews data of unique internet users and bandwidth demand over a 15-month period from November 2011 to January 2013, and the bottom line is that explicit search for infringing content increased by nearly 10% in that period alone, with 327 million unique users seeking unlicensed content just in January of 2013. Between 2010 and 2012, infringing bandwidth use increased by 159.3%, which represents 23.8% of the total bandwidth used in the regions covered by the study.

The data are gathered from North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, which combined, represent about 95% of total internet use worldwide.  The 327 million users who explicitly sought infringing content in January of this year represent nearly 26% of the total internet population in these regions. I asked Dr. Price how the increase in piracy corresponds to the growth of internet use overall, and he stated that not only did the rate of piracy outpace the general growth of internet adoption, but that individual users increased their personal volume of infringing consumption during the period of study.  So, even with the growth of legal alternatives, a population of web users roughly the size of the entire U.S. increased its use of BitTorrents and other infringement sites to view or download their media.

Of course, this is just one of the bigger lies about piracy refuted by the report.  There are some other noteworthy rebuttals of well-worn old saws, if you read the document.  There’s the claim we can’t define a site as “dedicated to infringement.” But the report says we can, and it sounds pretty reasonable to me.  Eliminating from the study all non-infringing uses, the report defines a site dedicated to infrignement thus:

‘Focused’ means that the infringing material comprises more than half of all links or all files posted on the site. For instance, previous analysis by NetNames shows that of all content held on ThePirateBay in December 2011, the majority was infringing (ranging from 78.1% for music to 92.9% for television)

And on the subject of the oft-heard claim that BitTorrent is used for non-infringing purposes.  This is true.  Taking pornography out of the equation, the report estimates non-infringing use at about .015% (see page29).

Finally, there’s the general perception that you can’t stop piracy. But, in fact, the report shows a significant ripple effect across the infringing ecosystems directly related to the takedown of MegaUpload and arrest of Kim Dotcom. (see page 45)

The report has been out for two days now, and we haven’t seen much criticism yet.  Maybe that’s because its methodologies and conclusions are pretty sound.  If so, maybe it’s time to stop talking about piracy as a new model or a driver of innovation or a way to express freedom from corporate control and just talk about it as a cultural phenomenon and, most likely, just a bad habit that’s getting worse.