Whose Future Is It?

Compressorhead, the all-robot band that plays hits by AC/DC, Motorhead, and The Ramones, represents another step toward a technological future in which machines continue to perform tasks as well as (or better than?) humans.  Many a techno-utopian  envisions a world in which human labor, including creative and performing arts no longer represents economic or social value.  Naturally, the prospect of a robot that can unfailingly impersonate virtuoso musicians leads to the inevitable assumption that this technology will eventually converge with Artificial Intelligence and produce a robot that can compose as well as perform.  This then raises the philosophical question about the present and future role of the artist or performer in society.  After all, what is the experiential difference between listening to two identical-sounding guitar solos played either by man or machine?  Nothing except of course the entire purpose of art — and just maybe the entire purpose of living.

Much of the discussion about our technological future is predicated on the central theme as to how much autonomy we want to cede to our machines?  While it’s reasonable to accept that a doctor-supervised robot can perform a delicate surgical technique without the human fallibility that causes hands to shake, current research into the use of IBM’s Watson in the work of diagnosis and prognosis begs the question as to what the human doctors of the future might do.  Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch just launched a campaign against the use of autonomous weapons capable of making battlefield decisions to kill a human target. And as Google works with other technologists to develop the driverless car, I have my own doubts about the prospects of its reliability given the rate of failure of ordinary MP3 players. These and other stories, of course, imply a progression toward the technological singularity, and it’s hard to avoid the sense that we might cross that event horizon without making a conscious, collective choice to do so.

It’s true that we mortals are imperfect, born of imperfection itself by the miracle of chance, composed of detritus from exploded stars.  We are finite, fallible, and fragile; but through experiencing one form of expression or another, we seek exaltation, we connect to one another, and we continually redefine what it means to be human for as long as we’re here. I believe this is why it’s exciting to watch an Olympic athlete perform a feat impossible for most of us but still achievable by a being who is one of us.  If we could not sense the fragility of our own joints or know the blunt, unforgiving nature of gravity, the flight of the figure skater would be a mundane exercise in high-school physics. It may be true that the capacity to build a machine that might replicate the subtle and complex motions of a skater is a human triumph in itself, but the ultimate value of such an endeavor must be something other than the android athlete. Once the novelty of the shiny object wears off, we will be no more excited to watch this object do a quadruple Lutz than to watch a forklift load a truck.  So it is with art.

Art absent the human hand serves no particular purpose.  If this were not the case, the world wouldn’t need Rostropovich and Yo Yo Ma, let alone the range of compositions for cello that come from a diversity of human imperfections. While many popular works, particularly in film and music, are so formulaic, they could arguably be the products of an algorithm, even these works often contain within them component features of extraordinary human creativity (e.g. great design in an otherwise lame movie) and so remain safely on this side of the event horizon.  The future, however, in which the robot wakes to compose and then perform its own songs is a tipping point when art becomes the expression of the robot condition.  Thus do our machines become our masters as we see in so many sci-fi, cautionary tales.

I remember a radio interview with Pete Townsend at least 15 years ago, in which he described breaking his hand and said that he would likely never be able to play with the speed and agility he once had.  And I suppose, with a few keystrokes, the lead guitarist of Compresorhead, Fingers, can be programed to reproduce Townsend’s intro to “Pinball Wizard” just as Townsend played it as a young man.  Hell, Fingers could even be programmed to smash its guitar at the end of the song, creating a bit of android satire.  Of course, what Fingers doesn’t have is a grandmother who shouted at him as a teenager to stop playing that terrible rock-and-roll and so inspired the first smashing of his first guitar.  And in this act is a glimpse into the significance of the cultural revolution in the U.K., where a generation of fatherless kids grew up in the gray rubble left by WWII and burst forth in a profusion of color and sound, themes that reverberate throughout nearly all the music of The Who.  It isn’t just about the data and the mechanics that produce the sounds.

This week Senator Goodlatte announced the start of the months long process to overhaul the copyright laws of the United States, and in his statement, he refers to the ongoing need to update and revise copyright to adapt to changing technologies.  But nowhere does the senator even imply that the basis for intellectual property rights has lost a fraction of value.  It’s safe to say that technology will continue to evolve according to the acceleration predicted by Moore’s Law, but this does not mean that we must inevitably relinquish control to our machines.  Preserving the basis for copyright and intellectual property law is about keeping the human in the human condition.


Photo by: Zyabich

Not All Change is Innovation

Photo by Vipgrafx
Photo by Vipgrafx

When a solid, honest business loses relevance due to changes in technology, then it can fairly be said to be a casualty of progress.  Such is the case for my dear friend Tony Tamberelli, who very recently shut the doors at Tamberelli Digital, a camera and lighting rental service in Manhattan.  Tony was just about the first professional with whom I did business in the New York market more than twenty years ago.  At that time, Tony was still managing a rental services business in New Jersey and hadn’t started his own shop yet, but his career included work for several of the major houses in NY and LA, and he was one of the most experienced guys in rentals.  He is also one of the nicest, which was no small thing back in the late 80s and early 90s.  Back then, when the available cameras on the market were packages with a retail value of well over $250,000, the guys (and I do mean guys) at the rental shops were not exactly receptive to calls from anyone who sounded like he might not know what he was doing.  It was not uncommon to hear an impatient voice at the other end of the line that suggested, “Prove to me you’re not a schmuck, and I’ll consider renting to you.”  But not Tony.  The first time I ever called him, I had plenty of dumb questions, and he couldn’t have been friendlier.  And over the subsequent two decades, I never rented from anyone else in the NY market.

The truth is that the writing was on the wall for sometime for Tamberelli Digital, and it is a textbook case of a business failing due to inevitable, technological progress.  Without going into the complexities of operating a rental shop, suffice to say that the core products for rent, cameras, have changed in two dramatic ways.  First, the quality of the image one can capture with a $5,000 camera in 2013 is hundreds of times better than what we could capture with a quarter-million dollar camera in 1993.  Second, there are about eight major manufacturers at any given moment producing a new product that has anywhere from several months to a year before a competitor produces something the market wants more.  So, it is very tough to know what inventory to keep on the shelves, and at the same time, many of us who use these cameras own at least one or two, and therefore rent less frequently or not at all. Meanwhile, the overhead required to maintain a rental business, particularly in Manhattan, is extremely high.  And finally, thanks in part to the illusion that digital production costs less, which it does not, macro forces in the market have driven rates downward while costs of operation (or living) have continued to rise.  So, that’s the snapshot version of why Tamberelli Digital closed its doors. Nobody is to blame for the contemporary irrelevance of this business; it is simply an economic reality stemming from actual innovation.

I don’t bring all this up in order to eulogize, but to illustrate the difference between real loss of value through innovation and dilution of value through practices that are not in fact innovative at all.  Innovation happens when Panasonic or Canon produces a camera that competes with a Sony product, and then Sony responds in kind, and so on. The beneficiaries of these innovations (usually) are consumers, who get a diverse array of affordable tools to produce motion pictures.  The victims of these changes are intermediaries like the rental house, not because the rental house didn’t provide a very valuable set of services, but because the core service, holding leases on expensive gear,  is no longer required in the new market. Conversely, however, not every disruptive digital-age business can be said to represent the same kind of innovation, even though presumptive defenders of all things Web, like to use this word to deflect criticism of what might be very damaging practices.

Take the music industry response to the Internet Radio Fairness Act (IRFA), in which Pandora claimed a rationale for lowering the already low licensing fees paid to artists.  This was, I believe, the first time we saw so many brand-name musicians speak out against a web-industry initiative since Lars Ulrich was pilloried over Napster. Regardless, Pandora cannot be said to be an innovation that obviates the need for the music in the same way low-price digital cameras obviate the need for my friend’s rental company.  To the contrary, it should be obvious to anyone that Pandora could not exist without the music and that if it cannot function while paying fairly-negotiated rates for its primary resource, then market rules says tough noogies, and some other entrepreneurs can try to get the formula right.  Of course, as is so often the case in our ever-bifurcating economy, the principals at Pandora can only fail upward if the business model doesn’t turn out to work. This post from Digital Music News discusses Pandora executives cashing out $87.6 million in shares, which may signal a lack of confidence in the business and also would not bode well for a Spotify IPO.  With payouts in the tens of millions from a company that has yet to make a profit, it is hard to know whether building a solid business is really the goal, or if Pandora is just a lesson how to become a dotcom bubble millionaire 2.0.  If the company were to fail, Web industry wonks would blame the musical artists, many of whom will never see $10 million in their lives, but few will question the extraordinary wealth going into the pockets of about three to four executives.

The web industry has a bit of a track record for doing at lightning speed what the corporate raiders of the 1980s were doing in a pre-digital context — namely generating fast wealth for a small group of people while building nothing and often destroying something of real value in the process.  It is, therefore, dangerous as a general practice to apply the word innovation as broad praise for every enterprise, initiative, or claim made by any company simply because it is web-based.  Pandora and Spotify may change the way consumers enjoy music, but they do not redefine the fundamental desire for the music in the first place, and they have nothing whatsoever to do with the manner in which it is produced.  We could look at Vimeo or YouTube in a similar way with regard to filmed entertainment or Amazon and e-books with regard to literature. All of these technologies change distribution and marketing, but they do not change the production of the products in any economic sense, and they do not change the desire among consumers to acquire the products.  Therefore, if the makers of products like music, books, motion pictures are in any way harmed by technologies that change distribution and marketing, it is not reasonable to paper over that harm in the name of so-called innovation. 

We already have a cultural problem distinguishing value from vapor, continuing a vicious cycle of leaping from bubble to bubble, and scores of economists seem to agree that we haven’t learned a thing since the near total collapse of the economy in the wake of the housing bubble implosion less than four years ago.  I know next to nothing about economics other than the self-evident observation that building a business that generates returns on investment and creates middle-class jobs is sound, and that a scheme that turns vapor into million-dollar transactions for five individuals is dysfunctional.  What I lack in knowledge about economics, though, I counter with a pretty solid understanding of language; and one expression I’ve known is utter bullshit since working for my first corporate client is the term “adding value.”  This is a purposely vague concept, often used by professional services companies to justify high fees; and even this may have some truth to it from time to time.

But “adding value” is also a popular term used by webonomics proponents like Mike Masnick to tell authors of creative works how to “adapt” to a market in which their products no longer have intrinsic value.  “Add value by selling tee shirts or creating special limited editions, etc.” the proposition goes, despite the fact that there are no grounds to argue that technological change has in truth diluted the intrinsic value of the media products themselves.  To the contrary, it is clear that the market still wants music, films, books, etc., which means the products retain their intrinsic value because nothing about technology has supplanted the demand.  Worse yet, the insistence that industries built on intrinsic value must adapt to the whims of an industry built almost entirely on advertising value is a very dangerous prospect in a world already on shaky economic grounds.  Advertising, which yields about 90% of Google’s extraordinary wealth, has no independent, intrinsic value; it must be pegged to products and services that do have intrinsic value in the consumer market. We literally cannot all be in sales and marketing; some of us have to make things. Hence, any business practice that dilutes intrinsic value for the sake of advertising value is not only not innovative, but is a form of cannibal economics over the long term.

It seems to me that we might think of value as we think of matter — that it can neither be created nor destroyed (hence cannot be added), but that it is always shifting from inhabiting one entity to another.  The value of cameras, for instance, shifted away from my friend’s rental business to retailers, who sell the cameras to a market wanting to own them.  But the value of creative works, like the ones produced with those cameras, has not in truth shifted away from the works themselves to entities seeking to exploit those works for the purpose of advertising.  The value remains embodied in the media products themselves. It is, therefore, not only preposterous to suggest that the Internet mandates a new economic model to which certain producers must adapt, it is potentially the logical foundation of one of the biggest bubbles destined to explode.

Scott Turow “The Slow Death of the American Author”

This op-ed that appeared in yesterday’s New York Times is easily one of the best pieces I’ve read on both the cultural and financial dangers of forsaking copyright in the name of technological “progress.”  The entire article is a pull-quote, but here are two that get right to the heart of the matter:

“The value of copyrights is being quickly depreciated, a crisis that hits hardest not best-selling authors like me, who have benefited from most of the recent changes in bookselling, but new and so-called midlist writers.”

“The Constitution’s framers had it right. Soviet-style repression is not necessary to diminish authors’ output and influence. Just devalue their copyrights.”

Please read the full article here.